Table 3 Results of the multivariable analysis (Cox proportional hazard model) to examine the relationship between the risk of HIV acquisition and three PVL measures.

The PVL measures were derived from the HIV-positive cases (models A1 to A3) and the HIV-positive and HIV-negative cases (models B1 to B3) of a population-based survey. The full output is given in tables S1 and S2. Model 1 shows the unadjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for the PVL measures; model 2 shows these HRs after adjusting for age, sex, urban status, marital status, number of sexual partners in the last year, and household wealth; model 3 shows these HRs after adjusting for the model 2 covariates as well as HIV prevalence.

Geometric mean viral load*Prevalence detectable
viremia
Community transmission
index
HR(95% CI)PHR(95% CI)PHR(95% CI)P
Population-based: HIV-positive cases only
  Model A1: Unadjusted HR1.000(1.000–1.000)0.2540.997(0.987–1.007)0.5030.999(0.957–1.043)0.966
  Model A2: Adjusted HR without HIV prevalence1.000(1.000–1.000)0.8171.005(0.994–1.015)0.4011.037(0.990–1.086)0.130
  Model A3: Adjusted HR with HIV prevalence1.000(1.000–1.000)0.4751.008(0.996–1.019)0.1901.048(0.999–1.100)0.057
Population-based: HIV-positive and HIV-negative cases
  Model B1: Unadjusted HR1.049(1.029–1.069)<0.0011.053(1.030–1.078)<0.0011.187(1.103–1.277)<0.001
  Model B2: Adjusted HR without HIV prevalence1.079(1.046–1.113)<0.0011.070(1.039–1.103)<0.0011.224(1.121–1.337)<0.001
  Model B3: Adjusted HR with HIV prevalence1.091(1.045–1.138)<0.0011.063(1.025–1.103)0.0011.193(1.079–1.320)0.001
N8,7328,7328,732

*For a one unit increase in geometric mean viral load.

†For a 1% increase in the prevalence of detectable viremia.

‡For a predicted one transmission event increase per 100 sexual contacts.