Table 1. Model comparison.

See Fig. 1 for a diagram of the general epidemiological model and the main text for a summary of the different models and their corresponding names used here.

ModelsEpidemiologyEvolutionNumber parametersAIC
H1N1α ≠1
ρwinter & ρsummer
Seasonal forcingLoss of immunity
wε ≠ 0
wβ ≠ 0
Basic××Periodic splines××144493
Basic-H1×Periodic splines××174478
RefinedPeriodic splines××194471
HumiditySpecific humidity××154484
Immunity loss/transmissionPeriodic splines224450
TransmissionPeriodic splines×214458
Immunity loss (continuous)Periodic splines×214448
Immunity loss (cluster)Periodic splines×204445