See Fig. 1 for a diagram of the general epidemiological model and the main text for a summary of the different models and their corresponding names used here.
Models | Epidemiology | Evolution | Number parameters | AIC | |||
H1N1 | α ≠1 ρwinter & ρsummer | Seasonal forcing | Loss of immunity wε ≠ 0 | Transmission wβ ≠ 0 | |||
Basic | × | × | Periodic splines | × | × | 14 | 4493 |
Basic-H1 | √ | × | Periodic splines | × | × | 17 | 4478 |
Refined | √ | √ | Periodic splines | × | × | 19 | 4471 |
Humidity | √ | √ | Specific humidity | × | × | 15 | 4484 |
Immunity loss/transmission | √ | √ | Periodic splines | √ | √ | 22 | 4450 |
Transmission | √ | √ | Periodic splines | × | √ | 21 | 4458 |
Immunity loss (continuous) | √ | √ | Periodic splines | √ | × | 21 | 4448 |
Immunity loss (cluster) | √ | √ | Periodic splines | √ | × | 20 | 4445 |