Supplementary Materials

Supplementary Material for:

Evolution-informed forecasting of seasonal influenza A (H3N2)

Xiangjun Du, Aaron A. King, Robert J. Woods, Mercedes Pascual*

*Corresponding author. Email: pascualmm{at}uchicago.edu

Published 25 October 2017, Sci. Transl. Med. 9, eaan5325 (2017)
DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.aan5325

This PDF file includes:

  • Additional description of materials and methods
  • Fig. S1. Illustration of the best model fits for alternative models.
  • Fig. S2. Proportion of antigenic variants.
  • Fig. S3. ROC curve for predicting antigenic cluster transitions based on the training data set covering the period from 2002 to 2011 in United States.
  • Fig. S4. Comparison of monthly observations and forecasts generated with the cluster model for the out-of-fit period covering the period from 2011 to 2017.
  • Fig. S5. ROC curve for choosing the percentage cutoff applied to risk level prediction for the cluster model.
  • Fig. S6. Forecasts based on the continuous model for the Unites States.
  • Fig. S7. Scatter diagram for seasonal simulations and observations for the U.S. data set covering the period from 2002 to 2016 based on the cluster model.
  • Fig. S8. H3N2 incidence forecasts for the U.S. HHS region 3.
  • Fig. S9. Log-likelihood profiling of the average effective time θ.
  • Fig. S10. Log-likelihood profiling of the basic average latent time ε0.
  • Fig. S11. Log-likelihood profiling of the reporting rate ϕ.
  • Fig. S12. ROC curve for choosing the percentage cutoff applied to risk level prediction for the continuous model.
  • Fig. S13. ROC curves for choosing the percentage cutoff applied to risk level prediction for the U.S. HHS region 3.
  • Table S1. H3N2 risk level forecasts based on leave-one-out cross-validation using the cluster model for the period between 2003 and 2011.
  • Table S2. Observed and predicted H3N2 seasonal incidence rate for the United States based on the cluster model for the period between 2011 and 2017.
  • Table S3. H3N2 risk level forecasts based on the continuous model for the United States.
  • Table S4. Model comparison based on data from the U.S. HHS region 3.
  • Table S5. H3N2 risk level forecasts for the U.S. HHS region 3.

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