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Vaccination of dogs in an African city interrupts rabies transmission and reduces human exposure

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Science Translational Medicine  20 Dec 2017:
Vol. 9, Issue 421, eaaf6984
DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.aaf6984
  • Fig. 1 Cumulative incidence of dog rabies and human exposure.

    (A) Cumulative incidence of recorded cases of dog rabies (infectious dogs) and simulated incidence of dog rabies in N’Djaména from 6 June 2012 to the end of October 2015. (B) Cumulative incidence of recorded human exposure to rabid dogs and simulated incidence of human exposure to rabid dogs in N’Djaména from 6 June 2012 to the end of October 2015.

  • Fig. 2 Density of vaccinated and unvaccinated dogs in relation to the effective reproductive number.

    (A) Density of susceptible (blue lines) and vaccinated (orange lines) dogs against time since 6 June 2012. The solid lines show the simulated values from an ordinary differential equation transmission model from June 2012 to October 2015. (B) Effective reproductive number, Re, and vaccination coverage against time. The solid orange line shows the vaccination coverage and the solid blue line shows the effective reproductive number—both estimated from the ordinary differential equation transmission model. The solid black line is the median Re obtained from the phylogenetic sequencing data, with upper and lower 95% credible intervals as black dashed lines.

  • Fig. 3 Stochastic simulations of the interruption of transmission.

    (A) Distribution of the simulated expected date of interruption of transmission from 1000 simulation runs of the stochastic model of dog rabies transmission. (B) Mean and 90% credible interval for exposed and infectious dogs from 500 runs of the stochastic model.

  • Fig. 4 Phylogeny of rabies strains isolated during and after the mass vaccination campaign.

    ML phylogeny of nucleoprotein sequences from rabies virus isolates collected in Chad from August 2011 to January 2015 and from sequences of previous isolates originating from Chad and from other neighboring countries. Sequences in blue were obtained from isolates collected in N’Djaména, Chad, during the period from August 2011 to January 2014, except for the sequences with an asterisk, which correspond to isolates collected outside of N’Djaména or without any precise origin (for one isolate) during the same period. Sequences in red are those obtained from isolates collected in N’Djaména from February 2014 to January 2015. Only bootstrap values >70 are indicated on selected nodes. A scale, indicating genetic distance, is presented by the horizontal bar. The tree is midpoint rooted for clarity only.

  • Table 1 Number of dogs vaccinated in each week of the vaccination campaigns.

    The campaign in 2012 started on 8 October 2012 (week 19) and in 2013 started on 30 September 2013 (week 70), as described in (18).

    Vaccination weekVaccinated dogs (2012)Vaccinated dogs (2013)
    1834722
    2181468
    3376330
    424434
    579367
    629011173
    76460928
    813934215
    930744372
    1016983424
    113114591
    12385979
    13209525

Supplementary Materials

  • www.sciencetranslationalmedicine.org/cgi/content/full/9/421/eaaf6984/DC1

    Fig. S1. One-dimensional sensitivity analysis of simulation results on parameter values.

    Fig. S2. One-dimensional sensitivity analysis of simulation results on parameter values with dog-to-dog transmission fixed as constant.

    Fig. S3. Sensitivity analysis of the simulation results on the probability of detecting rabid dogs.

    Fig. S4. Density of vaccinated dogs in N’Djaména in 2013 calculated on the basis of the data presented by Léchenne et al. (18).

    Fig. S5. Schematic of mathematical model of rabies.

    Fig. S6. Vaccination rates during the two campaigns in 2012 and 2013.

    Fig. S7. Local and global sensitivity indices of the control reproductive number, Rc, to the model parameters.

    Fig. S8. Sample simulation of the stochastic model, including the deterministic result.

    Fig. S9. Results of the phylodynamic analysis showing median (red) and 95% HPD interval (black) for Re through time.

    Table S1. State variables of dog rabies transmission model.

    Table S2. Parameters of the rabies transmission model with estimated values and sources.

    RabiesData1.txt (incidence data)

    RabiesData2.txt (genetic sequences of 33 dog rabies virus N-protein deposited in GenBank)

  • Supplementary Material for:

    Vaccination of dogs in an African city interrupts rabies transmission and reduces human exposure

    Jakob Zinsstag,* Monique Lechenne, Mirjam Laager, Rolande Mindekem, Service Naïssengar, Assandi Oussiguéré, Kebkiba Bidjeh, Germain Rives, Julie Tessier, Seraphin Madjaninan, Mahamat Ouagal, Daugla D. Moto, Idriss O. Alfaroukh, Yvonne Muthiani, Abdallah Traoré, Jan Hattendorf, Anthony Lepelletier, Lauriane Kergoat, Hervé Bourhy, Laurent Dacheux, Tanja Stadler, Nakul Chitnis

    *Corresponding author. Email: jakob.zinsstag{at}swisstph.ch

    Published 20 December 2017, Sci. Transl. Med. 9, eaaf6984 (2017)
    DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.aaf6984

    This PDF file includes:

    • Fig. S1. One-dimensional sensitivity analysis of simulation results on parameter values.
    • Fig. S2. One-dimensional sensitivity analysis of simulation results on parameter values with dog-to-dog transmission fixed as constant.
    • Fig. S3. Sensitivity analysis of the simulation results on the probability of detecting rabid dogs.
    • Fig. S4. Density of vaccinated dogs in N’Djaména in 2013 calculated on the basis of the data presented by Léchenne et al. (18).
    • Fig. S5. Schematic of mathematical model of rabies.
    • Fig. S6. Vaccination rates during the two campaigns in 2012 and 2013.
    • Fig. S7. Local and global sensitivity indices of the control reproductive number, Rc, to the model parameters.
    • Fig. S8. Sample simulation of the stochastic model, including the deterministic result.
    • Fig. S9. Results of the phylodynamic analysis showing median (red) and 95% HPD interval (black) for Re through time.
    • Table S1. State variables of dog rabies transmission model.
    • Table S2. Parameters of the rabies transmission model with estimated values and sources.
    • Legends for data files S1 and S2

    [Download PDF]

    Other Supplementary Material for this manuscript includes the following:

    • Rabies Data1.txt. (incidence data)
    • Rabies Data2.txt. (genetic sequences of 33 dog rabies virus N-protein deposited in GenBank)

    [Download Data Files S1 and S2]

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