Research ArticleInfectious Disease

Estimating cholera incidence with cross-sectional serology

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Science Translational Medicine  20 Feb 2019:
Vol. 11, Issue 480, eaau6242
DOI: 10.1126/scitranslmed.aau6242

Estimating the true prevalence of cholera

Successful development of anti-cholera measures requires accurate estimates of infection incidence. Reporting of cholera cases, however, typically relies on clinical assessment at the time of patient presentation and can be problematized by lack of access to health care and variable, nonspecific symptomatology. Combining a small number of serological markers with machine learning methods, Azman et al. were able to accurately detect individuals who had had cholera infections within the previous year. Simulated serosurveys showed that this simple antibody-based approach could potentially be used as an alternative method to estimate cholera incidence in a population.

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