Table 2 Probability (means ± SD) of HCV transmission as a function of viral load.

To estimate the probability of HCV transmission (Eq. 1), means were calculated using a Monte Carlo procedure. For parameter ρ (Eq. 1), samples were generated using the truncated normal distribution with the SD equal to one-quarter of the experimentally determined range. For parameter s, values were chosen from a uniform distribution between 0.05 and 0.5, and q values were chosen from a gamma distribution with calculated median and Q1 to Q3 as 17% and 7 to 33%, respectively (table S2).

Mean HCV transmission probability (±SD)
LDSSHDSS
HCV titer
(log10 IU/ml)
UnrinsedRinsedUnrinsedRinsed
1.00.57 (±1.25)0.16 (±0.30)2.58 (±4.16)0.30 (±0.55)
1.51.78 (±3.53)0.51 (±0.96)7.58 (±10.36)0.97 (±1.72)
2.05.43 (±8.60)1.67 (±3.00)19.97 (±20.84)3.09 (±5.10)
2.514.12 (±17.34)4.89 (±7.85)40.81 (±30.08)8.66 (±12.00)
3.031.00 (±28.03)12.95 (±16.67)65.67 (±31.68)21.18 (±22.10)
3.554.04 (±33.41)28.73 (±27.39)84.54 (±25.09)42.25 (±30.94)
4.075.50 (±30.68)50.95 (±33.81)94.26 (±16.41)66.45 (±32.01)
4.588.90 (±23.29)72.52 (±31.79)98.04 (±9.78)84.66 (±25.26)
5.095.31 (±15.79)87.22 (±24.31)99.37 (±5.73)94.12 (±16.89)
5.598.13 (±10.09)94.79 (±16.41)99.78 (±3.29)97.89 (±10.19)
6.099.30 (±6.03)97.91 (±11.36)99.94 (±1.25)99.31 (±6.11)