Table 3. AD megafund risk and return to taxpayers.

Investment returns and risks with respect to M&M cost savings from the AD megafund over a 13-year investment period for various combinations of probabilities of success (p), pairwise correlations (ρ), and probabilities of at least one hit (p1) under the AA model (10) for the economic impact of new AD therapies that either delay the onset of AD (T2) or slow its progression (T3). The row labeled “KSK–CH” uses pairwise correlations and success probabilities calibrated qualitatively by K.S.K. and C.H. for each of the 64 hypothetical projects. E[R], expected return; SD[R], return standard deviation.

Horizon (years)
102030102030102030102030
Parameters (%)
pρ p1E[R]: Delayed-onset (T2)SD[R]: Delayed-onset (T2)E[R]: Slowed-prog. (T3)SD[R]: Slowed-prog. (T3)
509610.222.328.321.824.125.37.717.322.421.323.224.2
510902.613.819.535.038.840.70.39.213.934.237.238.8
54069−21.5−13.0−8.653.259.061.9−23.3−16.5−12.952.056.659.0
58040−54.0−48.9−46.456.162.365.4−55.0−51.0−48.954.959.762.3
10010014.426.933.23.94.44.611.821.727.03.84.24.4
10109912.825.231.413.815.316.010.320.025.313.514.715.3
1040914.515.921.732.335.937.72.211.216.031.634.435.9
108046−46.8−41.0−38.057.163.466.5−48.0−43.4−40.955.860.863.4
15010014.527.033.30.60.70.711.921.827.10.60.70.7
151010014.226.733.15.35.96.211.721.626.85.25.75.9
15409812.324.630.815.817.518.49.819.524.715.516.817.5
158062−29.1−21.3−17.455.661.764.7−30.6−24.5−21.254.459.261.7
KSK-CH87−0.410.516.038.542.744.8−2.66.010.637.641.042.8